Predicting future quantities of obsolete household appliances in Nanjing by a stock-based model

China has become one of the largest producers of obsolete household appliances (HAs) in the world. However, information on discarded HAs in China is deficient owing to the unavailability of reliable data. The estimation of future obsolete streams is a crucial issue for the establishment of efficient waste collection and recycling systems. The present study describes a prediction model to forecast future obsolete HAs on the basis of information of in-use stocks of HAs in households. The model was applied to a forecasting analysis of quantities of obsolete HAs from 2009 to 2050 in Nanjing, China. The results show that a total of about 76 million units (2.8 million tonnes) of obsolete HAs will be generated in Nanjing over the next 40 years. Discarded air conditioners, color TV sets, and personal computers will be the major contributors. The total discarded amount of major kinds of HAs will increase from nearly 1.0 million units in 2009 to a maximum of 2.1 million units in 2040, and then decrease slightly to 2.0 million units in 2050. Urban households will generate significantly more obsolete HAs (about 56 million units) than rural households, due to the difference in their HA possession levels. The results of this study should help the Nanjing municipality to develop the collection and recycling systems and facilities needed for the obsolete HAs generated in the future. From a methodological perspective, the stock-based model provides a suitable tool to predict the generation of discarded HAs in the future.     

The normalisation of terror: the response of Israel's stock market to long periods of terrorism

Man‐made disasters such as acts of terrorism may affect a society's resiliency and sensitivity to prolonged physical and psychological stress. The Israeli Tel Aviv stock market TA‐100 Index was used as an indicator of reactivity to suicide terror bombings. After accounting for factors such as world market changes and attack severity and intensity, the analysis reveals that although Israel's financial base remained sensitive to each act of terror across the entire period of the Second Intifada (2000–06), sustained psychological resilience was indicated with no apparent overall market shift. In other words, we saw a ‘normalisation of terror’ following an extended period of continued suicide bombings. The results suggest that investors responded to less transitory global market forces, indicating sustained resilience and long‐term market confidence. Future studies directly measuring investor expectations and reactions to man‐made disasters, such as terrorism, are warranted.     

薇甘菊入侵对深圳湾红树林生态系统碳储量的影响

外来植物入侵对生态系统碳过程的影响已经成为入侵生态学研究的热点问题。采用比较研究的方法分析了薇甘菊（MikaniamicranthaH．B．K．）入侵对深圳湾红树林生态系统碳储量的影响,分别设置红树林（Kandelia candel）群落、红树林．薇甘菊群落、薇甘菊群落以及光滩等样地,采集植被、凋落物和土壤剖面样品,分析生态系统各组分的碳储量变化。结果表明,薇甘菊入侵对红树林生态系统碳储量有着显著的影响,碳储量从未被入侵下215．73tC／hm^2减少到轻、高度入侵下的197．56tC／hm2和166．70tC／hm2,分别减少8．42％和22．72％。其中植被和土壤碳储量显著减少,凋落物碳储量显著增加。薇甘菊入侵一方面导致红树林枯萎,减少植被生物量,增加凋落物量,另一方面促进了土壤微生物活动,使土壤有机碳分解释放,降低土壤碳储量。薇甘菊入侵后红树林碳储量的降低将大大削弱生态系统的碳汇功能。     

利用猪场废弃物发展生态农业的模式研究

规模养猪是专业化、集约化生产方式，也是农业产业化经营的发展趋势。如果养猪场产生的大量粪尿得不到妥善处置和充分利用，将对环境产生很大的危害。猪粪尿中含有大量的营养物质和生物质能，以猪粪尿厌氧发酵为纽带，充分利用沼液和沼渣作为发展种植业和渔业的肥料或饲料，形成“农林渔牧”生态农业体系，不仅有效促进农村经济发展、增加农民收入，而且能够保护生态环境、节约资源。剖析了小、中、大3类猪场以沼气建设为纽带发展生态农业的规律、生产模式、系统结构及其效果。结果表明，为了促进规模养猪健康发展，形成“农林渔牧”生态农业体系，养猪专业户必须增强节约资源、保护环境的社会责任感，政府要加强猪场污染物排放的监管，同时制定优惠政策引导和促进猪粪尿资源综合利用。     

基于模糊影响图方法的库存弹药事故概率分析

针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,在分析国内外库存弹药典型事故案例的基础上,指出FTA、ETA等传统概率计算方法存在的局限。提出一种基于模糊影响图(FID)的库存弹药事故概率分析方法,并对FID模型的构建过程和算法进行概述;以弹药被盗事故作为实例分析,并得到事故概率分布图和累积概率曲线。结果表明,FID的算法理论及建模过程能较好地克服FTA、ETA等传统方法的局限性,实例分析指出弹药被盗事故在10-4数量级的隶属度最高,且事故发生概率更趋向于10-3～10-1数量级,从而得到一旦仓库安全防范措施不到位,就很有可能发生弹药被盗事故的结论。     

黄浦江水系水质变化及原因分析

根据1986—2010年的水质监测数据,研究了黄浦江水系水质变化,并对影响水质的主要因素进行了探讨。结果表明,近25年的黄浦江水系水质变化基本可分为3个阶段:1986—1996年,上海市的畜牧业高速发展,生活污水量逐年上升,工业废水量较大而处理率低,水环境压力加大,水质持续恶化;1996—2002年,上游来水水质、生活污水量和畜牧业污染量均基本稳定,为水质改善创造必要条件,随着工业废水量的下降及废水处理能力的加强,水质持续改善;2002—2010年,上游来水水质在2002—2004年明显恶化,生活污水量再次进入快速上升期,加大了水环境改善的难度,水质改善趋势放缓并渐趋稳定。     

Effect of Planning for Connectivity on Linear Reserve Networks

Although the concept of connectivity is decades old, it remains poorly understood and defined, and some argue that habitat quality and area should take precedence in conservation planning instead. However, fragmented landscapes are often characterized by linear features that are inherently connected, such as streams and hedgerows. For these, both representation and connectivity targets may be met with little effect on the cost, area, or quality of the reserve network. We assessed how connectivity approaches affect planning outcomes for linear habitat networks by using the stock‐route network of Australia as a case study. With the objective of representing vegetation communities across the network at a minimal cost, we ran scenarios with a range of representation targets (10%, 30%, 50%, and 70%) and used 3 approaches to account for connectivity (boundary length modifier, Euclidean distance, and landscape‐value [LV]). We found that decisions regarding the target and connectivity approach used affected the spatial allocation of reserve systems. At targets ≥50%, networks designed with the Euclidean distance and LV approaches consisted of a greater number of small reserves. Hence, by maximizing both representation and connectivity, these networks compromised on larger contiguous areas. However, targets this high are rarely used in real‐world conservation planning. Approaches for incorporating connectivity into the planning of linear reserve networks that account for both the spatial arrangement of reserves and the characteristics of the intervening matrix highlight important sections that link the landscape and that may otherwise be overlooked. El Efecto de la Planeación para la Conectividad en Redes de Reservas Lineales     

基于BP神经网络的上市公司CEO报酬实证研究

近年来的研究表明,CEO报酬不仅受公司业绩的影响,还受到其他诸多因素的影响,而且,CEO报酬与其决定因素之间往往存在着非线性关系。本文以2003-2005年沪深股市的A股上市公司为样本,采用BP神经网络对CEO总报酬、CEO年薪、CEO持股价值及其决定因素分别进行训练和学习,结果表明：（1）网络训练输出值与实际值的拟合度分别达到91.09%、97.23%和78.44%;（2）网络的预测能力相对于传统的线性回归模型分别提高了92.72%、92.08%和53.89%。因此,本文认为在分析和确定CEO报酬水平时引入神经网络模型是可行的。     

葛洲坝至古老背江段鱼类的水声学调查

2004年10月~2006年5月利用Bisonics DT-X科学回声探测仪(200 kHz)对葛洲坝至古老背-葛洲坝下游中华鲟(Acipenser sinensis Gray)自然保护区核心江段(30 km)的鱼类进行了5次水声学调查。结果表明：鱼类在该江段中分布呈现不均一性,深潭处分布集中,而急流处分布很少,葛洲坝至艾家河江段鱼的密度明显大于艾家河至古老背江段;在中华鲟产卵日,鱼类在葛洲坝至庙咀江段高度密集,2004年的平均密度达到62.62±24.77尾/1 000 m3,2005年的平均密度达到70.58±37.45尾/1 000 m3;整个江段中,体长60~106 mm的鱼类占有较高比例,约7.0%以上,53 mm以下的鱼类和750 mm以上的鱼类占较低比例,均小于2.0%;调查期间,探测到中华鲟产卵亲鱼,初步估算2004年的资源量约为1 453尾,2005年的资源量约为789尾;95%置信度下分别为1 370~1 537尾、775~803尾。     

中国乘用车塑料的动态物质流分析

结合行业信息并基于动态物质流模型,本文对1950~2050年间中国乘用车塑料流量与存量进行了历史测算与情景分析.历史测算表明：1950~2018年国内乘用车行业累计消耗了以聚丙烯（PP）、聚氨酯（PU）等为主的塑料3278万t,产生了337万t塑料废弃物;报废汽车拆解后的车用废塑料仅28%得到回收利用.针对未来情况,本文设计了乘用车保有量、单车塑料使用量两大关键因素下的不同情景组合.结果显示车用塑料存量及废塑料产生量将大幅增长,到2050年存量将达到0.7~2.7亿t,废塑料产生量将达到500~1600万t,汽车拆解和塑料再生等相关行业对此应充分关注.到2050年车用废塑料回收率若能提升至80%,将减少376万t/a的车用废塑料填埋或焚烧,显著减少环境风险.